Re: Terrorist attack on the USA

["Robert J. Hansen" <rjhansen@xxxxxxxx>]

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> been mentioned, Bin Laden has access to a large amount of funding
> (How, I don't know, so don't ask. I was a T.A. Military Policeman, not

His family is composed of Saudis who made a fortune in the construction 
industry, last I heard.

Also keep in mind that for part of the Afghan War, the mujahedeen were making 
their pocket money by selling opium on the world market to finance weapons 
purchases.  That's another potential source of income.

> Given the short list of capable nations and organisations with (1)
> motive, (2) opportunity, (3) capability, and (4) willingness, to

The only problem I see here, Roger, is that this shows a level of 
coordination on the part of the mujahedeen which they have never before 
demonstrated.  It would not surprise me to discover that they found an ally 
in some government with an axe to grind against the United States.

In the interests of not fanning the flames of paranoia, I'm going to withhold 
speculation on possible conspiratorial nations for several days.

> It is interesting to note that he stated that no distinction as to
> responsible parties, either perpetrators, or sheltering nations, in
> brining those responsible to justice. This implies that he inteds to

He went further than that; as I recall, his speech said that the United 
States would draw no distinctions of any kind between perpetrators and 
sponsor nations (e.g., harborers)--not just no distinction between them 
insofar as bringing the parties responsible to a court of law, but no 
distinction of any kind.

That leaves the door open for any and all reprisals.

> Summary of assessment:
> ===================
> Most likely suspect:   Bin Ladin.
> Most likely state to
> support prime
> suspect:                      Afghanistan.
> Initial (desired)
> solution:                      Public trial in the USA.
> Most likely solution:   Military action against aforementioned
>                                     state(s).

I think your summary is pretty much spot-on.  Except that, perhaps, you're 
understating the degree of military reprisal.

Most terrorists (and many foreigners, in general) think the United States is 
an inept giant.  Blow up 247 Marines in Beirut and what do we do?  Nothing.  
(Well, we invaded Grenada 24 hours later as a way of showing we weren't 
cowards.  Way to go, Reagan.)  Kidnap Americans and what do we do?  Nothing.  
Embarass us on the international stage and what do we do?  Nothing.

A lack of political *direction*, though, is not the same as a lack of 
political *will*.  When an enemy gives the United States a clear and 
unambiguous political direction, the consequences have historically been 
catastrophic.

2400 Americans died during Pearl Harbor, and look at what that resulted in 
for the Japanese.  

We've probably far surpassed that death toll already.

- -- 
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Robert J. Hansen <rjhansen@inav.net>
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