Re: Something of a scenario idea

[Janne Kemppi <jkemppi@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

On Thu, 8 Nov 2001, Robert J. Hansen wrote:

>> tasks that can be done in private sector, however, I do not see
>> BE capable of doing armed hostage rescue on consistent basis.
>
>Why wouldn't they be able to?
>
>Keep the lessons of South America in mind, where a hostage negotiator
>can charge (and receive!) upwards of $5,000 /a day/--that's $150,000
>a month--and many negotiations last well over six months.  If a
>thriving hostage-negotiation business goes on, and people are willing
>to pay the negotiatior $900,000 *on top of* paying the terrorists
>whatever ransom they demand, then I think people would be more than
>willing to pay BE $1,000,000 to pull someone out by force and avoid
>paying ransom at all.

	There are good reasons NOT to do that, like fear of getting
	into court battle if person to be rescued dies and her family
	sues company that wanted her rescued. This depends on legal
	ass covering (and it had to be VERY good) but if you get it,
	then it might be possible (at least as an option). however,
	risks in fouled up things are such that potential clients
	would prefer to pay it up with cash (corporate image is very
	important in real world and hiring mercenaries who fuck it up
	is catastrophe besides many corporations are ready to pay it
	in money to save publicly face, this is common with computer
	crime). Thus only a very few clients are really interested in
	that. Last resort so to say.

>Now assume that the average cell does two hostile extractions per
>year, and the average BE office has 5 cells with hostage-rescue
>capability.  That's $10,000,000 of income per office per year just
>from hostile extraction.
>
>You can do a *boatload* of training with the profit left over from
>$10,000,000 of income.

	Personally I find your numbers too 'good' so to say. That
	is 50 times 19 = 950 extractions a year. Think about that
	number, a billion dollar industry. Way too high.

	However, you have been convincing me that it could happen
	and this is how I'd assume it might happen within framework
	of ME.

	Let's assume that BE would have, say one Cell in theatre
	(5 total in world) that are capable of it. This assumes
	they are former members of hostage rescue groups with
	leader probably headhunted from similar group (who had
	worked in such a group as a senior leader). This is quite
	expensive investment but let's assume BE invests some 10
	million USD to make it happen per Cell capable of that
	to headhunting, initial training and equipment (this is cheap
	since real special operations soldier costs some 1 million
	Pounds to train aloune but we assume that he is a veteran
	and thus knows things already and that all necessary is
	keeping him up to par). We assume this costs something
	like 1 million per Cell per year to upkeep.

	Annual cost 1 million, annual income should be in order of
	2 million. with a 1 million dollar per hit, this goes roughly
	equal, with few percentage as profit (I am factoring some
	administrative details and profit sharing and taxes in) that
	should make it reasonable investment with few years, especially
	if these specialized cells do other, profitable work too.

	Then these groups would get that 2 missions a year. A total
	of 10 missions per year in whole world. Assume that entire
	market for such things would be perhaps 20-25 missions in
	real world (BE keeps some 50% market share). Other companies
	in market are probably smaller and more regionally oriented.
	BE would be only one with global reach that would be its main
	marketing tool while regional efforts boast far better local
	knowledge. Thus market shares would probably remain same over
	time.

	Then it might be possible because armed rescue is risky and
	I am sure that many clients would not use it and prefer to
	use negotiations instead. Last option again. All legal aspects
	would have to be very carefully negotiated to cover all parties
	involved. This means long negotiations, most probably followed
	after normal negotiations with hijackers had failed or they
	believe that negotiations will fail. Probably takes weeks to
	months to negotiate.

	Thus vast majority of BE employees (so called operatives)
	would go into BE, work there and get out without ever being
	part of this kind of job. I could believe this kind of set-up.
	I do not believe in run on the mill BE cell being capable of
	doing armed hostage rescue but this kind of set-up with a couple
	of Cells who really can do it, might be possible, if you get
	all the legal problems (especially conserning with governments)
	done.