Re: Alarming statistics.

[Jeff Pawlowski <blackeagleblackeagle@xxxxxxxxx>]

> Oh, there's all sorts of ways to reckon numbers. 
> Please note that the 
> statistic I cited didn't attempt to ascertain
> -cause- to anything.  The 
> instant you try and use statistics to establish
> cause, you've left the 
> realm of mathematics and entered the realm of
> politics.

Let me quote your original email too.
"... Statistically, a doctor is nine thousand times
more dangerous than 
a 
gun owner.  :)"

What you are trying to establish by presenting the
data this way is that Doctors are more dangerous than
Gun Owners.  Using the same type of statistics you
just pointed out, the typical American is 1000 times
more likely to die in a car accident than the typical
Chinese citizen.  Why?  Because we drive cars and the
Chinese ride bicycles.  Given the population
difference, you also have to look at the amount of
time spent traveling in a car.  Police Patrol cars are
more likely to be involved in an accident than the
typical car, when drivers are qualified equally,
mainly because patrol cars are on the roads
substantially longer periods of time, thus giving
greater opportunity to have an accident.

Remember that report that showed a correlation between
night lights and children with near-sightedness? 
After looking at the data, they determined that a
night light does NOT contribute to near-sightedness. 
Use of a night light correlated to parents of these
children, who also happened to be near-sighted, used
night lights so they themselves would not trip or
stumble in the dark while going to check on the
children.

My point is that I don't pull out my gun and practice
shooting my pistol in public, or even every day.  My
other point is that Doctors are using their skills
daily.  If you look at the difference in "opportunity"
to do harm through accidents, then the statistics
could easily fall the other way.  What you really need
is an "Accidental deaths per population PER TIME OF
OPPORTUNITY."  A gun is perfectly 100% safe (and a
doctor too) if they are tucked away in a gun safe (or
doctor in bed sleeping).


=====
Jeff Pawlowski
Millennium's End: Officially Unofficial
http://www.millenniumsend.com

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