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Re: [ME]: United States Terrorism, Suspect Rundown
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Mister Hansen, My I call you Rob??
Let's see if we can't make some sense out of things, guys. This list is
generally pretty good at understanding national (NATO and foreign) military
and intelligence capabilities, so I figure we've got as good a chance as the
talking heads on CNN at making sense of things.
I would be surprised if Other Rob (MathesonT) was able to contribute very
much to this: I remember a conversation some time ago in which he said that
what he knew of US military response to terrorist actions came in two
varieties: open-book and stuff he could get prosecuted for saying. So let
me
head it off at the pass: please don't bother Other Rob with this. If he
wants to join in, he will, but he may be legally constrained.
===
1. WHO HAS THE CAPABILITY TO DO THIS?
The level of coordination can be used to limit the likely candidates. This
was not the work of a Timothy McVeigh, for instance--it is the work of a
coordinated conspiracy involving many actors in lockstep harmony. This was
not a terrorist action so much as it was a military action.
The bin Laden organization is composed primarily of former mujahedeen,
tougher than a coffin nail and ballsy as hell. Arguments pro and con:
+ The mujahedeen would be willing to commit suicide for the cause.
(Presumably, suicide operators were used in the plane crashes.)
+ The mujahedeen are some of the finest guerrilla operators in the
world. Remember: they're the ones the Soviet Special Forces
(the
Spetsnaz) lived in mortal fear of running into.
- The mujahedeen have no experience conducting military operations
outside the mountainous terrain of Afghanistan.
- The mujahedeen have no experience conducting military operations
on a worldwide scale.
- The mujahedeen are currently embroiled in an internal power
struggle. Just yesterday, one of the senior mujahedeen leaders was
reported by the US as "presumed dead" after a suicide bomber went
off in his office.
+/- The mujahedeen lack an effective counterintelligence
apparatus.
On the other hand, their organizational structure has proven to
be
absolute hell for Western intelligence agencies to infiltrate.
Foreign first-world military powers (India, Russia, Canada, etc.--I'm not
suggesting the Canadians did this, of course, I'm just listing the sort of
countries I consider first-world military powers):
+ Possess the military and intelligence apparatuses to pull off
coordination and execution on this scale
+ Possess the counterintelligence apparatuses to keep the CIA and
NSA
in the dark about their plans
- Lack suicide bombers
- Possess too much good sense to commit acts of war against
American
civilians using weapons of mass destruction. US policy on foreign
nation use of WMDs against United States interests is clear: you
use a WMD on us and we'll turn one of your cities into radioactive
glass. Given that the US possesses the resources and capabilities to do
exactly this without any effort at all, any first-world military
power would likely realize this set of actions would lead to national
suicide.
Foreign second-world military powers (Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya, etc.):
+ Possess the military and intelligence apparatuses to pull off
coordination and execution on this scale.
+ May possess suicide bombers
+ In fundamentalist/totalitarian regimes, may possess the ideological
fervor necessary to use a WMD on United States civilians
+ May possess the counterintelligence apparatuses to keep
US agencies in the dark
+ Some second-world military powers have lots of experience at
terrorism
- Regardless of ideological fervor, would know that a United States
response would be equivalent to passing a death sentence on their
entire nation
... I don't know who did it, I have no notion of who did it, I have no
classified intelligences pertaining to who did it, I'm not even going to
speculate, for the time being, on who did it. Right now we've got bigger
things to worry about than who did it, like, for instance, the fact that
we're still under attack and we've still got people dying and bleeding.
Still, this run-down may give a little bit of insight into the potential
suspects and players.
- --
=====
Robert J. Hansen <rjhansen@inav.net>
PGP Fingerprint: 23C8 C3D1 BBE7 C72D D17D D008 980E 18A7 82C2 392B
AIM: TheCipherpunk ICQ: 14737662
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